AI CAPEX CYCLETERM PREMIUMKOREA LEVERAGEPRIVATE CREDITDOLLAR LIQUIDITYFISCAL DOMINANCEAI CAPEX CYCLETERM PREMIUMKOREA LEVERAGEPRIVATE CREDITDOLLAR LIQUIDITYFISCAL DOMINANCEAI CAPEX CYCLETERM PREMIUMKOREA LEVERAGEPRIVATE CREDITDOLLAR LIQUIDITYFISCAL DOMINANCE
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The world runs on leverage. Someone should write it down.

Independent, long-form theses on the machinery beneath the price — the AI capex cycle, leverage unwinds, term premium, and the funding plumbing that decides how fast things break.

Published
23
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Abstract editorial illustration of overlapping market trend lines
Lead thesisAug 04, 2026

Japan’s Money Is Collapsing — And The World Could Pay The Price

For 30 years, Japan supplied the world with ultra-cheap money. Now rising rates, a weakening yen and capital repatriation could reverse that flow — putting pressure on U.S. Treasuries, global stocks, mortgages and the massive yen carry trade.

Japan spent decades providing ultra-cheap capital that flowed into global assets. Now, rising rates and reduced bond purchases could pull that money back home, potentially pushing U.S. yields higher and unwinding one of the world’s largest sources of leverage: the yen carry trade.

Read the full thesisMacro · 11 min

What this desk covers

Equities

Valuation, capex cycles, earnings quality

Credit

Spreads, private credit, funding stress

Rates

Term premium, fiscal supply, duration

Liquidity

Plumbing, collateral, forced flows

The archive

Recent theses

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01MarketsJul 30, 2026

South Korea’s AI Bubble Just Popped — And America Could Be Next

South Korea may have just provided a preview of what an AI-driven market correction could look like. The KOSPI had surged alongside Samsung and SK Hynix as investors piled into the AI and semiconductor trade, often using leverage. When concerns emerged that U.S. AI spending could slow, the market reversed sharply, triggering margin calls, forced liquidations, and a self-reinforcing selling cycle.

8 min readRead
02MacroJul 12, 2026

China Is About To Pop The AI Bubble

China’s cheaper AI models could challenge the massive investment cycle behind data centers, GPUs, and cloud computing. If businesses increasingly choose lower-cost models that are “good enough,” AI adoption could surge while revenue and margins for infrastructure companies fall. This creates a paradox: **AI could become more successful technologically while AI investments become less profitable financially.**

11 min readRead
03CommoditiesJul 01, 2026

China Just Shut Down Gold Trading

China is reshaping the global gold market by restricting some paper-gold products while accumulating physical gold, expanding storage, and strengthening the Shanghai Gold Exchange. This could challenge the dominance of London and New York by giving physical supply and demand a greater role in pricing. More broadly, China appears to be pushing toward a multipolar monetary system where gold, the yuan, and alternative payment networks coexist alongside the dollar.

12 min readRead
04MacroJun 28, 2026

The Iran Deal Just Broke The Global Economy

The global economy may be shifting from war-driven growth toward an investment cycle centered on AI, robotics, semiconductors, energy, and infrastructure—industries that require stability rather than conflict. The Iran deal could signal this broader transition, potentially turning the Middle East into a major hub for infrastructure and technology investment if stability prevails.

11 min readRead
05MacroJun 16, 2026

Gold vs. the Digital Dollar

The biggest financial story of the decade may be the changing monetary system beneath the AI boom. While investors pour money into AI, central banks are accumulating gold and reducing reliance on dollar assets, while the U.S. pushes a digital dollar ecosystem through stablecoins and Treasury-backed currencies. The result is a growing divide between digital-dollar finance and a gold- and commodity-backed alternative, with AI adding further pressure through productivity gains and economic disruption. The key question is which assets will retain their value as the monetary system evolves.

12 min readRead
06MarketsJun 08, 2026

Your 401K Is Their Exit Strategy (IPO BUBBLE)

The coming AI IPO wave could put passive investing to a major test, with SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic potentially entering markets at massive valuations and quickly joining major indexes. This could create huge automatic demand from index funds even if valuations are excessive. AI may transform the economy while AI stocks still become overpriced, making concentration in a handful of AI and tech companies a growing risk for retirement investors.

13 min readRead